## Friday, 26 August 2011

### Individual Goal values for the EPL 13th,14th and 15th August 2011.

Firstly a brief description of the methodology.

The win probability for each team is tracked on a minute by minute basis throughout each EPL game.At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or expected points (EP) for short.

By comparing those totals immediately before and immediately after a goal is scored it is possible to assign a value to that goal.Similar significant events that occur during a game,such as dismissals,goalkeeping saves and referring mistakes can be treated in the same way.
All probabilities account for the respective abilities of both sides.An early goal by a vastly superior side is for example less "valuable" than one scored by a team in a more evenly matched encounter.

.......................................................................................................................................

Liverpool 1 - 1 Sunderland.

Liverpool were strongly favoured pregame and started the match with a points expectancy of over 2 points.By the 12th minute their points expectancy had fallen slightly to around 2.1 points,but Suarez's goal bumped it back up to 2.67 points.Sunderland's EP was below 2 tenths of a point until Larsson's superb volley increased it to 8 tenths.Probabilistically Larsson's was just the more valuable of the two.

........................................................................................................

QPR 0-4 Bolton.
Cahill's goal just before the break in a game where Bolton were marginal underdogs was the most valuable of the weekend,bar WBA's own goal.Worth almost of full point,it catapulted Bolton's EP from 1.16 to 2.15.QPR's self inflicted own goal was worth just over half of Cahill's strike.Klasnic scored just early enough to register a goal worth 0.1 of a point,but Muamba's goal was late and of negligible value.

.....................................................................................................

WBA 1-2 ManU.
Rooney's
strike was of similar value to Suarez's score for Liverpool earlier in the day.Such is ManU's ability compared to mid to lower teams like WBA,that Long's equaliser only increased WBA's EP from 0.2 to 0.7.However,each teams EP's were converging towards 1 when Young's deflected cross gave the defending Champions a boost of 1.36 points from 1.44 to 2.8 and ultimately all three points.

...............................................................................................

Wigan 1-1 Norwich.
Wigan were just moderate favourites against newly promoted Norwich,so Watson's penalty was worth almost 0.8 of a point despite it coming relatively early in the game.Hoolahan's goal was identical in value to Watson's as it dragged the Canaries EP off the floor to just over one.Although Wigan remained probabalistically the most likely winners of the two both PE's converged to 1 at fulltime.

..................................................................................................

Blackburn 1-2 Wolves.
Virtually identical EP changes for the first two goals in this game and the Wigan Norwich encounter.Ward's  game breaker was worth almost a point,indicating the value of a goal in games between closely matched teams.

..................................................................................................

ManCity 4-0 Swansea.
The opening Dzeko goal didn't come until the 57th min,but that didn't make it close to being the most valuable of the weekend.There was still over half and hour to play and such was Man City's pregame superiority over the Welsh side there was still a good chance that there would be goals and the home side would be the team to score them.Welcome to the Premier League!

...................................................................................................

Stoke 0-0 Chelsea.
No goals,but if Begovic hadn't tipped Anelka's late goalbound header onto the bar Chelsea's EP would have jumped from 1.56 to 2.67 with just 20 minutes to play and Stoke's would have dropped from 0.93 to 0.21.

......................................................................................................

Newcastle 0-0 Arsenal.
No goals here either and  Gervinho's red card was enough to ensure that Newcastle were just about favourites over the closing 14 minutes,but Arsenal
hung on.

..........................................................................................................

Fulham 0-0 Aston Villa.
A dour,uneventful game.Fulham's pregame supremacy drifting gently down to meet with Villa's by full time.

...............................................................................................................

A round up of the value of every goal scored this weekend.

 SCORER TEAM Pre goal Points Expectation. Post goal Points Expectation. Increased Points Expectation. Percentage Increase. WBA OG ManU 1.44 2.80 1.36 85.6 CAHILL Bolton 1.16 2.15 0.99 88.4 WARD Wolves 1.12 2.10 0.99 88.4 HOOLAHAN Norwich 0.35 1.12 0.77 220.6 WATSON Wigan 1.60 2.37 0.77 47.8 FORMICA Blackburn 1.60 2.37 076 47.4 DZEKO ManCity 2.06 2.80 0.74 35.9 FLETCHER Wolves 0.38 1.11 0.72 188.8 LARSSON Sunderland 0.18 0.80 0.62 339.3 ROONEY ManU 2.11 2.67 0.56 26.5 SUAREZ Liverpool 2.12 2.67 0.56 26.2 QPR OG Bolton 2.25 2.79 0.54 24.2 LONG WBA 0.20 0.73 0.53 269.8 AGUERO ManCity 2.81 2.98 0.17 6.0 KLASNIC Bolton 2.88 2.98 0.11 3.7 SILVA ManCity 2.98 3.00 0.02 0.5 MUAMBA Bolton 2.99 3.00 0.01 0.2 AGUERO ManCity 3.00 3.00 0 0

#### 1 comment:

1. Mark, very interested in what you do here. I would be interested to discuss further 1:1 so appreciate if you could email me at: nicdubfire@gmail.com.