Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Blackburn v Fulham.

Blackburn 3 Fulham 1.

0-0,Red Card,Yakubu,(Blackburn),23'

It takes some serious self inflicted damaged to make a run of the mill home relegation scrap a candidate for performance of the season.Yakubu's red card was harsh,but understandable in the current slightly chaotic refereeing climate.The striker's dismissal,his first in England came after just 23 minutes and therefore was the equivalent of pre game favourites Fulham leading the original 11 v 11 match up by just over a goal.At that point Blackburn's expected points total was driven down to a shade over 0.4 points per game and 20 minutes without conceding was only good enough to cause it to climb by 0.1 points.However,two goals within a minute (although separated by the interval) catapulted Rovers to the status of strong favourites.The clock was very much their friend when Duff halved their advantage and the climb towards three precious points was accelerated and virtually assured by substitute Formica's strike 10 minutes from time.

The transfer window round up here,surmised that a Samba less Blackburn defence,allied with a better than average attack for a struggling side was their best chance to survive and that's just what Rovers served up for their fans on Saturday.


  1. Can you tell me more about you got these numbers? I'm really interested in the process.

  2. Hi Will,

    At any point in a game a team will have a probability of winning the game outright and an associated probability of drawing the game.By multiplying the probability of winning the game by 3 and the probability of drawing by 1 and adding the results together you will get an expected longterm average for the number of points that team will achieve from that position or Expected Points (EP) for short.