Wednesday, 4 January 2017

How Dominant Are Chelsea's Halftime Record Chasers?

Chelsea travel to Spurs tonight needing a win to equal the record for the number of consecutive Premier League wins.

After 19 games, half a season, they have accumulated 49 points, beaten only by the 2005/06 Chelsea side, who gained 52 points and equalled by the 2003/04 Manchester United team.

In keeping with all of the traditional title challengers in the Premier League, Chelsea has put a lacklustre 2015/16 behind them and improved their expected goals at both ends of the pitch as the season has progressed.

It is an impressive reversal of fortunes, but it is also shared by their title challengers. Only Arsenal has shown a marked decline in their defensive metrics and of course Leicester, although the Foxes have been replaced by a resurgent Manchester United.

Chelsea are therefore worthy favourites to regain the title in May 2017. In simulations of the remaining matches, they are odds on to finish top of the pile.

But where does the current halfway house, Chelsea lie in the Premier League role of honour?

Points won is a natural starting point, but that neglects to account for the closeness and quality of challengers.

A better measure is the points per game won by Chelsea, expressed as a standard score, which attempts to account for how dominant a side has been using the characteristics of this particular season as a benchmark.

Chelsea (2016/17) is currently 2,06 standard deviations above the league average points per game prior to last night's results. Five teams are within 10 or fewer points of their current total, albeit after one game more, with the exception of their opponents tonight, Spurs.

By contrast, 2014/15 Chelsea had three fewer points than the current team, but had burned of a lot of challengers, with the exception of Manchester City. So arguably that was a more dominant mid term performance.

Similar comments apply to the other eight teams above Chelsea in the preceding table in terms of standard scores at halfway.

Check out the ultimate performance of the league leaders on Christmas Day based on their standard scores in this post from 2014